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Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.

In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.

In recent years, Turkey's leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been widely criticised as an authoritarian. Further, Turkey's military incursions into Syria have caused some to ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.

However, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.

This question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?

This question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.

If before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.


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