80 forecasters

Will AI automation of jobs be essentially ignored in the US presidential race?

96%chance

96%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 96% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 14, 2016

Closes:

Oct 3, 2016

Resolved:

Oct 20, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 14, 2016

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2016 Leaderboard

AI Is Taking Jobs: Could Universal Basic Income Become a Reality?

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2025

Wynton Hall to Politico: AI Raises a ‘Trillion-Dollar Question’ for Conservatives

Breitbart•Sep 16, 2025

AI will make the rich unfathomably richer. Is this really what we want? | Dustin Guastella

Guardian•Sep 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?

(17 Aug 2025 - 21 Jan 2028)

(17 Aug 2025 - 21 Jan 2028)

Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?