92 comments
332 forecasters
By November 2nd, 2020, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?
5%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2019
Closes:Nov 1, 2020
Resolved:Oct 17, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2019
Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?
24% chance
50
Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?
1% chance
802
If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?
10% chance
64