📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?

Resolved :365349
4
19
Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction349 (317 - 381)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
317.2
349.5
381.3

What was the final result?365

Community Baseline Score
69.5
Community Peer Score
16.0
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
2019 Leaderboard
United Kingdom
House of Commons of the UK
UK general election
Conservative Party (UK)

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