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10
128
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7
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128 forecasters
Geopolitics
2 more...
Will Obama pardon Snowden?
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13 comments
12 forecasters
People pardoned by noon (EST) Jan 20, 2029?
Sam Bankman-Fried
15%
Elizabeth Holmes
20%
Larry Householder
42%
John Kiriakou
10%
2 others
8 comments
19 forecasters
Trump pardons politically violent offenders?
Paul Pelosi hammer attack
2%
Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot
20%
Josh Shapiro's residence arson attack
2%
2 comments
91 forecasters
≥10 US president-affiliated people to get a pardon/commutation in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
Yes
2025-2026
result:
Yes
2027-2028
95%
5 comments
36 forecasters
Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?
25%
chance
1 comment
21 forecasters
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 19, 2029?
50%
chance
6 comments
130 forecasters
Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?
0.1%
chance
2 comments
15 forecasters
AI Whistleblower Protection
6%
chance
15 comments
42 forecasters
Will a prominent Dem seek asylum before Jan 20, 2029?
7%
chance