Question

Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?

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Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

47.2%

(41% - 50%)

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50%

community: 47.2%

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Nov 25, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2033

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 27, 2019

Information technology

Electrical engineering

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2.9×10¹⁸

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

5.9×10²⁶

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹