Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
14
23
forecasters
3
14 comments
23 forecasters
2016 Leaderboard
Will Metaculus add a meta discussion feature?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
Yes
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (14)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
55 comments
539 forecasters
Metaculus Existence in 2030
98%
chance
10 comments
60 forecasters
Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
2.4%
chance
36 comments
117 forecasters
Date of Last Metaculus Resolution
Current estimate
Mar 2047
17 comments
149 forecasters
Metaculus Predicts AI Risk Significant 2040
85%
chance
4 comments
12 forecasters
Most Impactful Area
Indirect Impact (Questions on the Platform)
30%
Direct Impact (Programs with Partners)
26%
Indirect and Direct Impact, Roughly Equally
20%
Software We've Built
14%
Something Else
10%
86 comments
166 forecasters
Total Number of Metaculus Predictions
5 comments
23 forecasters
Is krantz data critical to alignment?
1%
chance
14 comments
62 forecasters
AI resolving questions on Metaculus
2025
result:
No
2030
70%
2035
91%
2040
90%
2050
96%