Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?
Alexi Navalny is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president Vladimir Putin. He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in 2018. Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.
It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with Nelson Mandela. Indeed, a large majority of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia.
Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?
Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.
Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.
Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.
Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.
In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).
If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.
Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.