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Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?

Alexi Navalny is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president Vladimir Putin. He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in 2018. Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.

It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with Nelson Mandela. Indeed, a large majority of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia.


Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?


Resolution details:

  • Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.

  • Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.

  • Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.

  • Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.

  • In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).

  • If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.

Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.

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