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57 forecasters
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 24, 2019
Closes:Aug 1, 2020
Resolved:Oct 29, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 26, 2019
By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?
55% chance
58
Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?
40% chance
85
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
15% chance
78