Question

Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before April 1, 2025?

Resolved:No

77 comments77

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction

10%

(3% - 19.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

5.1

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 31, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 31, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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85%

Will Emerson Mnangagwa be president of Zimbabwe on January 1st, 2029?

23%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?

85%