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Will the Conservative and Unionist Party form the first government after the next UK general election?

The Conservative and Unionist Party is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.

The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.

The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019. Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.

This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?

This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.

This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.


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