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2030 Challenge for fun: what will surprise Metaculus?

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You're challenged to make a prediction with a 2030 resolve date, to which you'd give 65% or more probability, but for which you predict the community prediction will be 35% or less.

OR

You're challenged to make a prediction with a 2030 resolve date, to which you'd give 25% or less probability, but for which you predict the community prediction will be 75% or more.

(Specify the valence of the surprise in your prediction. Why did I chose different numbers for the two cases? Because idiosyncratic pessimism is easier.)