Question
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
Total Forecasters23
Community Prediction
3.1×10²⁵ FLOP
(6.1×10²⁴ FLOP - 1.6×10²⁶ FLOP)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1×10²⁴ | 16.6% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 6.1×10²⁴ | — |
| median | 3.1×10²⁵ | — |
| upper 75% | 1.6×10²⁶ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >5×10²⁶ | 11.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 27, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 27, 2025
