36 comments
1k forecasters
Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 3, 2025
Closes:Mar 27, 2025
Resolved:Mar 28, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 6, 2025
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
126 forecasters
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
26 Sep 2027
(21 Oct 2026 - 27 Jan 2029)
26 Sep 2027
(21 Oct 2026 - 27 Jan 2029)
46 forecasters
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?
60% chance
49