195 forecasters

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?

8%chance

8%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 8% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 5, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2020

Resolved:

Dec 31, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 6, 2020

2020 Leaderboard

Kim Jong Un oversees ‘eye-opening’ test of new long-range nuclear missile

Independent•Sep 9, 2025

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Gives Major Nuclear Update

Newsweek•Sep 9, 2025

North Korea conducts its final ground test of a solid-fuel engine for long-range missiles

NBC•Sep 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch