Question

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Perplexity run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025?

Resolved:Yes

84 comments84

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction

20%

(15% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-106.7

Community Peer Score

27.3

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Feb 3, 2025

Closes:

Feb 3, 2025

Resolves:

Feb 10, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 3, 2025

Question Weight:90%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

37%

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Feb 3, 2025

Closes:

Feb 3, 2025

Resolves:

Feb 10, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 3, 2025

Question Weight:90%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

37%

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%