Question

Will China announce an agreement to build a PLA military base anywhere in North American or South American continents before April 1, 2025?

Resolved:No

78 comments78

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction

(3.5% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

1.7

Community Baseline Score

91.4

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closes:

Feb 9, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 9, 2025

Question Weight:75%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

27%

Will the Solomon Islands host a Chinese military base before 2032?

25%

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

25%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closes:

Feb 9, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 9, 2025

Question Weight:75%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Satellite Photos Show China Turning Artificial Island Into Military Base

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

27%

Will the Solomon Islands host a Chinese military base before 2032?

25%

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

25%