39 comments
174 forecasters
If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
58%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
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Opened:Jan 14, 2020
Closes:Apr 11, 2061
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2020
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.36 years
(-1.59 - 13.7)
3.36 years
(-1.59 - 13.7)
65 forecasters
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
43% chance
92
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
Jan 2055
(Dec 2035 - 2123)
Jan 2055
(Dec 2035 - 2123)
114 forecasters