Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?

Question

We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular this article reports research suggesting a "the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years." The research suggests that "the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000." The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.

Given that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:

Will any of the current top 30 of oldest living persons as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?

This question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.