229 forecasters

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

11%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 23, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2070

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2020

The US is unlikely to test nuclear weapons, despite what Trump says

New Scientist•Oct 31, 2025

Scientists on edge as Trump’s nuclear test order sparks fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Oct 31, 2025

Turning Back From the Brink of Nuclear War

AntiWar•Oct 23, 2025

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