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6
82
forecasters
6
6 comments
82 forecasters
Environment & Climate
2 more...
When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?
Predict
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Current estimate
2080
2080
(Jan 2039 - >2100)
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (6)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
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Climate Clock Hits Zero?
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30 Sep 2029
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GC to be caused by nuclear war, if it occurs?
30%
chance
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Global Thermonuclear War by 2070
11%
chance
10 comments
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5Y after AGI, nuclear deterrence undermined?
40%
chance
7 comments
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Date of First Nuclear Detonation
Current estimate
Feb 2046
0 comments
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Duration of Nuclear Conflict by 2030
Current estimate
73.1 hours
23 comments
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Global Population Decline >10% by 2100
39%
chance
19 comments
108 forecasters
Existential risk from AGI vs AGI timelines
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
20%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
40%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
28%
2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31
15%
2060-01-01 to 2099-12-31
9.3%