Question

Will Donald Trump visit China after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?

Resolved:No

83 comments83

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction

7.3%

(5% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7.3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

2.6

Community Baseline Score

85.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Mar 7, 2025

Closes:

Mar 7, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2025

Question Weight:80%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Kremlin Won’t Comment on Potential Trump-Putin Reunion in China

Breitbart•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?

22%

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?

0.1%

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

12%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Mar 7, 2025

Closes:

Mar 7, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 7, 2025

Question Weight:80%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Kremlin Won’t Comment on Potential Trump-Putin Reunion in China

Breitbart•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?

22%

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?

0.1%

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

12%