Question

Will Canada revoke Elon Musk's citizenship before April 1, 2025?

Resolved:No

82 comments82

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

(1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

1.7

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Mar 12, 2025

Closes:

Mar 12, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 12, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Elon Musk’s proposed new political party could focus on a few pivotal congressional seats

Guardian•Jul 5, 2025

The world's richest (homeless) man could be driven to an idyllic safe haven... but it'll ignite a huge firestorm

Daily Mail•Jul 3, 2025

Can Trump strip Musk and Mamdani of their US citizenship?

Al Jazeera•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?

Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?

25%

Will at least part of Canada become a U.S. state before January 21, 2033?

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Mar 12, 2025

Closes:

Mar 12, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 12, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Elon Musk’s proposed new political party could focus on a few pivotal congressional seats

Guardian•Jul 5, 2025

The world's richest (homeless) man could be driven to an idyllic safe haven... but it'll ignite a huge firestorm

Daily Mail•Jul 3, 2025

Can Trump strip Musk and Mamdani of their US citizenship?

Al Jazeera•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?

Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?

25%