Question

Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all xAI models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?

Resolved:No

-1

83 comments83

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction

26.5%

(18% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 26.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

16.2

Community Baseline Score

55.1

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Mar 12, 2025

Closes:

Mar 12, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 12, 2025

Question Weight:50%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

32%

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

20%

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.7×10²⁵

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Mar 12, 2025

Closes:

Mar 12, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 12, 2025

Question Weight:50%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

32%

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

20%

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.7×10²⁵