Question

Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?

Resolved:No
Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction
26.1%
(20% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 26.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score
7.7
Community Baseline Score
49.9
Opened:Mar 12, 2025
Closes:Mar 12, 2025
Resolves:Apr 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 12, 2025
Question Weight:50%
Include Bots:Yes