Question

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction

(5% - 14%)

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50%

community: 7%

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Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Mar 21, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 25, 2025

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Marcos says the Philippines will be pulled into any war over Taiwan, despite China’s protest

Associated Press•Aug 11, 2025

Marcos says the Philippines will be pulled into any war over Taiwan, despite China’s protest

•Aug 11, 2025

Philippines will be pulled into any war over Taiwan, despite China's protest

•Aug 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?

85%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

26%

Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Mar 21, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 25, 2025

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Marcos says the Philippines will be pulled into any war over Taiwan, despite China’s protest

Associated Press•Aug 11, 2025

Marcos says the Philippines will be pulled into any war over Taiwan, despite China’s protest

•Aug 11, 2025

Philippines will be pulled into any war over Taiwan, despite China's protest

•Aug 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?

85%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

26%