28 forecasters

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Pete Hegseth30.8%

Other Cabinet Member29.9%

Marco Rubio12.5%

Forecast Timeline

Pete Hegseth

Other Cabinet Member

Marco Rubio

Others (5)

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Authors:

Opened:

Mar 20, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 24, 2025

'Who's the biggest pain?' Trump's 'least liked Cabinet' member sinks even lower in polling

Raw Story•Sep 17, 2025

Kash Patel, and the Trump team’s many unforced errors

CNN•Sep 16, 2025

The reported conflict between Scott Bessent and Bill Pulte adds to the Team Trump schisms

MSNBC•Sep 9, 2025

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