Question

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction

0.2%

(0.1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 0.2%

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Authors:

Russell-viper

Opened:

Apr 7, 2025

Closes:

Dec 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 30, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 30, 2025

Politics

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

With only one nuclear arms pact left between the U.S. and Russia, a new arms race is possible

PBS NewsHour•Aug 6, 2025

Mutually assured destruction is dead. Enemies are circling. And the Pentagon is divided. Nuclear threat is escalating and there's calls for the military to act... before it's too late

Daily Mail•Aug 6, 2025

With only one nuclear arms pact left between the US and Russia, a new arms race is possible

Associated Press•Aug 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

12.5%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

25%

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

30%

Authors:

Russell-viper

Opened:

Apr 7, 2025

Closes:

Dec 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 30, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 30, 2025

Politics

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

With only one nuclear arms pact left between the U.S. and Russia, a new arms race is possible

PBS NewsHour•Aug 6, 2025

Mutually assured destruction is dead. Enemies are circling. And the Pentagon is divided. Nuclear threat is escalating and there's calls for the military to act... before it's too late

Daily Mail•Aug 6, 2025

With only one nuclear arms pact left between the US and Russia, a new arms race is possible

Associated Press•Aug 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

12.5%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

25%

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

30%