38 comments
133 forecasters
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
15%chance
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 12, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 14, 2020
When will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact come into effect?
Feb 2042
(Feb 2035 - Sep 2064)
Feb 2042
(Feb 2035 - Sep 2064)
6 forecasters
Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?
50% chance
50
If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?
60% chance
71