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Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?

Question

Every year on Groundhog's Day, Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his home on Gobbler's Knob and the Inner Circle reports whether Phil could see his shadow, indicating whether he predicts an early spring, or six more weeks of winter-like weather.

This year, Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring. Will he be right?

The Inner Circle maintains kayfabe and holds that Phil's record is flawless. Independent analyses have been more harsh.

For the purpose of this question, an early spring is defined as February having a mean temperature in the United States above the 20th century average, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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