Group

Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election?

3
6
6 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Candidate (margin and seat)Me
Monique Ryan (2.2 v LIB in Kooyong, VIC)
yes
Kate Chaney (1.3 v LIB in Curtin, WA)
yes
Zoe Daniel (3.3 v LIB in Goldstein, VIC)
no
Dai Le (1.1 v ALP in Fowler, NSW)
yes
Sophie Scamps (3.3 v LIB in Mackellar, NSW)
yes
Helen Haines (8.9 v LIB in Indi, VIC)
yes
Zali Steggall (9.4 v LIB in Warringah, NSW)
yes
Allegra Spender (6.8 v LIB in Wentworth, NSW)
yes
Andrew Wilkie (20.8 v ALP in Clark, TAS)
yes
Resolved May 2, 2025
Community Baseline Score
12.0
Community Peer Score
3.0
Authors:
Opened:Mar 29, 2025
Closes:May 2, 2025
Resolves:May 3, 2025