Question

Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?

Resolved:Yes

23 comments23

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction

69%

(60% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 69%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-68.0

Community Peer Score

28.5

Authors:

CullenOKeefe

Opened:

Feb 14, 2020

Closes:

Apr 1, 2020

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 14, 2020

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

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Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

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What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?

Authors:

CullenOKeefe

Opened:

Feb 14, 2020

Closes:

Apr 1, 2020

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 14, 2020

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

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•Jun 23, 2025

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Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%