Question

How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Resolved:1.0229

2 comments2

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction

(0.929 - 1.07)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<-1	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2.5
community	0.1%	0.9293	1.002	1.069	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<-1	0.1%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	0.9293	—
median	1.002	—
upper 75%	1.069	—
Upper bound
>2.5	0.1%	—

What was the final result?1.0229

Community Baseline Score

89.2

Community Peer Score

10.3

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Feb 19, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2020

Resolves:

Jan 21, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 21, 2020

Environment & Climate

2020 Leaderboard

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

25%

How much global warming by 2100?

3.14