134 forecasters

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Current estimate

Jul 2034

(17 May 2029 - Sep 2046)

Forecast Timeline

Top Key Factors

The paper from Gidney of Google have decrease qubits estimation from 20 million to 1 million very recently in 2025.

Delays