Question
What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?
Resolved:1.17Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction
1.09
(1 - 1.18)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.1 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 1.001 | — |
| median | 1.094 | — |
| upper 75% | 1.183 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2.2 | 0.2% | — |
What was the final result?1.17
Community Baseline Score
70.6
Community Peer Score
17.1
Authors:
Opened:Feb 22, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Aug 30, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 24, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Feb 22, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Aug 30, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 24, 2020