Question

What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?

Resolved:2.5

4 comments4

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction

2.03

(1.82 - 2.43)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<0.5	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>3.5
community	0.5%	1.816	2.027	2.428	0.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.5	0.5%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	1.816	—
median	2.027	—
upper 75%	2.428	—
Upper bound
>3.5	0.7%	—

What was the final result?2.5

Community Baseline Score

56.9

Community Peer Score

33.7

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Feb 24, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 26, 2020

Environment & Climate

2020-2021 Leaderboard

What will be the IPCC's best estimate of the transient climate response in 2100?

1.9

Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 PPM over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?

15%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Feb 24, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 26, 2020

Environment & Climate

2020-2021 Leaderboard

What will be the IPCC's best estimate of the transient climate response in 2100?

1.9

Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 PPM over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?

15%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%