Question

Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

Resolved:No

44 comments44

Total Forecasters164

Community Prediction

(1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

66.7

Community Peer Score

10.6

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Feb 25, 2020

Closes:

May 17, 2020

Resolves:

May 17, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 26, 2020

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

While North Korea denied Covid-19 cases, the virus was widespread and barely treated, report says

CNN•Jun 18, 2025

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By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Feb 25, 2020

Closes:

May 17, 2020

Resolves:

May 17, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 26, 2020

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

While North Korea denied Covid-19 cases, the virus was widespread and barely treated, report says

CNN•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%