42 comments
206 forecasters
Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?
3%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 3% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 25, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Jan 11, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 26, 2020
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
65% chance
54
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
97