Metaculus Help: Spread the word
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Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
For the purpose of this question, only Metaculus accounts created prior to this question's opening date count. Users must comment on this post to be counted. Such comments should include:
- The date on which the user received a positive test result for COVID-19.
- Some sort of evidence to back up their claims, such as a photo of a doctor's note, ideally with a doctor's signature.
The evidence can be presented either publicly in comment itself or via private correspondence with site moderators. It is up to the judgment of the moderators to determine the legitimacy of claimed diagnoses.
Edit (4 April): Positive serology tests that establish, beyond reasonable doubt, that the user has had an infection, is sufficient for positive resolution.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.