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46 comments
138 forecasters

When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?

community
21 Mar 2024
result
Ambiguous
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Mati_Roy
Opened:Jul 30, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Resolved:Dec 16, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 1, 2020
Economy & Business
Natural Sciences
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Verge logo
The US has a new roadmap for fusion energy, without the funds to back it up
Verge•Oct 18, 2025
Independent logo
British scientists celebrate ‘breakthrough’ in quest for unlimited clean energy
Independent•Oct 17, 2025
TechCrunch logo
The real reason Google DeepMind is working with a fusion energy startup
TechCrunch•Oct 16, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

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When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

Qwp ≥ 1
Oct 2043
Qsci ≥ 5
Jul 2037
32 forecasters

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

Oct 2051
(Jul 2041 - Mar 2063)
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96 forecasters
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