crowdsourcing intelligent insights crowdsourcing predictive insights calculating predictive forecasts mapping intelligent wisdom delivering calibrated wisdom mapping the future composing definitive estimations delivering definitive forecasts formulating calibrated futures exploring contingent insights delivering calibrated insights computing definitive estimations crowdsourcing accurate wisdom forecasting calibrated futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How many communist states will there be in 2050?

At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.

Simultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines, various Naxalite insurgencies in India, the conflict between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru, the conflict between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army, as well as the conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government.

The question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?

For the purposes of this question, "communist state" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.

This question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.