35
133 forecasters
Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?
Jorge Quiroga29.5%
Manfred Reyes Villa2.1%
Samuel Doria Medina56%
Andrónico Rodríguez11.5%
Medina favored by tactical left-wing votes
Increases Likelihood
Potential new MAS candidate uncertain
Increases Likelihood
Quiroga appeals to protest voters
Increases Likelihood
Morales and Rodriguez suspended from election
Decreases Likelihood
Quiroga and Medina competing for centrist votes
Increases Likelihood
Rodriguez ability to consolidate leftist votes
Increases Likelihood
Medina slightly leads in current poll
Increases Likelihood
Either Medina or Quiroga very likely to win the first round
Increases Likelihood
Volatility in south american election polls
Decreases Likelihood