58 comments
180 forecasters
Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?
5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 2, 2020
Closes:Apr 30, 2020
Resolved:Jun 6, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 3, 2020
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?
27% chance
28
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
65% chance
54
If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?
34.7% chance
32