70
169 forecasters
Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?
ResolvedNo
At least five competitors with a significant chance to earn one prize with 2/3rd of the way to go
Decreases Likelihood
Four serious competitors now exist
Decreases Likelihood
1st place comment writer historically also reliably reaching the prize cap so far
Increases Likelihood
Difficult to predict the level of competition for the commenting prizes
Decreases Likelihood
Historically high prize cap in this tournament (50%)
Decreases Likelihood
Pros eligible for prizes on comments for (most) questions
Increases Likelihood