🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?

Resolved :0.004160.00587
109
351
Total Forecasters363
Community Prediction0.00587 (0.00393 - 0.00874)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<0.001
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>0.1
...
...
...
...
...
1.6%
0.003929
0.005867
0.008744
0.7%

What was the final result?0.00416

Community Baseline Score
23.5
Community Peer Score
39.9
Authors:
ignorance.prior
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
World Health Organization
Epidemiology

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