79 forecasters

Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before July 1, 2025?

40%chance

40%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 40% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

May 15, 2025

Closes:

May 15, 2025

Resolved:

Jul 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 15, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Iran, Russia, China Send Letter to UN To Mark Official End of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal

AntiWar•Oct 20, 2025

Obama-era Iran nuclear non-proliferation deal officially expires — as Trump seeks out Tehran peace deal

New York Post•Oct 19, 2025

Iran says restrictions on nuclear programme ‘terminated’ as deal expires

Al Jazeera•Oct 18, 2025

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