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Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.

A number of nation-states, including Japan and Italy, have closed their schools in an attempt to curb COVID-19 infections.

This question asks if New York City, the largest city in the United States, will close its public schools due to COVID-19 in the year 2020. New York State has has eleven confirmed infections as of March 4, 2020. The town of Hastings-on-Hudson, 20km north of New York City, has announced it will close its public schools for two days as a precaution against COVID-19.

Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?

Question resolves positively if >50% of NYC public schools (including primary, middle, and high-school level) are closed for at least one full day due to COVID-19 before January 1, 2021. Specifically, this resolves positively if

  • at least 50% of NYC public schools are closed simultaneously for at least one day;
  • at least 60% of schools NYC public schools are closed for at least one day for any non-overlapping time-window in a 7-day period;

and negatively otherwise.

Closures of NYC public schools for other reasons are not sufficient to resolve yes. Resolution is by credible news reports or by reports by the New York State government agencies. % of schools is taken here by number of schools, not by number of students.

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