Question

Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?

Resolved:Yes

1 comment1

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction

80%

(68% - 86%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

3.6

Authors:

dylan.matthews

Opened:

May 24, 2025

Closes:

Oct 1, 2025

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 1, 2025

Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Here's your potential tax cut in 2026 from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

CBS•Jul 18, 2025

No Tax On Overtime Explained

Forbes•Jul 17, 2025

USA Today•Jul 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the percent deduction allowed for qualified business income (QBI) in tax year 2026?

26.8

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%

How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce spending on energy and environmental tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act?

524B

Authors:

dylan.matthews

Opened:

May 24, 2025

Closes:

Oct 1, 2025

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 1, 2025

Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Here's your potential tax cut in 2026 from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

CBS•Jul 18, 2025

No Tax On Overtime Explained

Forbes•Jul 17, 2025

USA Today•Jul 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the 2025 reconciliation bill set as the percent deduction allowed for qualified business income (QBI) in tax year 2026?

26.8

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%

How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce spending on energy and environmental tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act?

524B