Question

Will Harvard University have a Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification on July 1, 2025?

Resolved:Yes

30 comments30

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

60%

(51% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

8.4

Community Baseline Score

64.8

Authors:

BenWilson

Opened:

May 26, 2025

Closes:

May 28, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 28, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025

Exactly what is in the Ivy League deals with the Trump administration – and how they compare

The Conversation•Aug 14, 2025

Harvard and the Trump administration are nearing a settlement including a $500 million payment

Associated Press•Aug 13, 2025

Harvard nearing settlement with Trump to pay $500 million and regain federal funding

PBS NewsHour•Aug 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?

10%

Will international enrolled graduate students in the US see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in Trump's first year compared to undergraduates?

Will computer science and engineering see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in the number of enrolled international students in Trump's first year compared to other fields?

Authors:

BenWilson

Opened:

May 26, 2025

Closes:

May 28, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 28, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025

Exactly what is in the Ivy League deals with the Trump administration – and how they compare

The Conversation•Aug 14, 2025

Harvard and the Trump administration are nearing a settlement including a $500 million payment

Associated Press•Aug 13, 2025

Harvard nearing settlement with Trump to pay $500 million and regain federal funding

PBS NewsHour•Aug 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?

10%

Will international enrolled graduate students in the US see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in Trump's first year compared to undergraduates?

Will computer science and engineering see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in the number of enrolled international students in Trump's first year compared to other fields?