43 comments
165 forecasters
When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?
Current estimate
Feb 2053
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Mar 14, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2250
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2250
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 16, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?
28% chance
288
When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
2540
(Apr 2069 - >9999)
2540
(Apr 2069 - >9999)
124 forecasters
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?
22% chance
1.6k